Pattern recognition to forecast seismic time series

نویسندگان

  • Antonio Morales-Esteban
  • Francisco Martínez-Álvarez
  • Alicia Troncoso Lora
  • J. L. Justo
  • Cristina Rubio-Escudero
چکیده

Earthquakes arrive without previous warning and can destroy a whole city in a few seconds, causing numerous deaths and economical losses. Nowadays, a great effort is being made to develop techniques that forecast these unpredictable natural disasters in order to take precautionary measures. In this paper, clustering techniques are used to obtain patterns which model the behavior of seismic temporal data and can help to predict medium–large earthquakes. First, earthquakes are classified into different groups and the optimal number of groups, a priori unknown, is determined. Then, patterns are discovered when medium–large earthquakes happen. Results from the Spanish seismic temporal data provided by the Spanish Geographical Institute and non-parametric statistical tests are presented and discussed, showing a remarkable performance and the significance of the obtained results. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Day-ahead Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets by a New Hybrid Forecast Method

Energy price forecast is the key information for generating companies to prepare their bids in the electricity markets. However, this forecasting problem is complex due to nonlinear, non-stationary, and time variant behavior of electricity price time series. Accordingly, in this paper a new strategy is proposed for electricity price forecast. The forecast strategy includes Wavelet Transform (WT...

متن کامل

Seismic Data Forecasting: A Sequence Prediction or a Sequence Recognition Task

In this paper, we have tried to predict earthquake events in a cluster of seismic data on pacific ring of fire, using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). The model is employed as either a predictor for a sequence prediction task, or a binary classifier for a sequence recognition problem, which could alternatively help to predict an event. Here, we explain that sequence prediction/r...

متن کامل

Financial time series forecasts using fuzzy and long memory pattern recognition systems

In this paper, the concept of long memory systems for forecasting is developed. The Pattern Modelling and Recognition System (PMRS) and Fuzzy Single Nearest Neighbour (SNN) methods are introduced as local approximation tools for forecasting. Such systems are used for matching current state of the time-series with past states to make a forecast. In the past, the PMRS system has been successfully...

متن کامل

Price forecast in the competitive electricity market by support vec - tor

Price forecast is a task challenging and very important in competitive electricity market context. Both market players and regulators concern very much about the price evolution, on one hand, the prediction of the market price is a crucial information for the production arrangement and bidding strategies. On the other hand, the regulators need to analyze the market behavior and monitor the mark...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Expert Syst. Appl.

دوره 37  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2010